"The undecided voters are not a pretty bunch," observed Peter Beinart, editor of the New Republic, during his visit to campus as a Poynter Fellow in Journalism.
The putative holders of the keys to the presidential election are, according to Beinart, "personality driven" with little interest in the issues.
Beinart described his own political maturation and shared several insights about the current presidential race with the capacity audience at a master's tea at Pierson College on Oct. 19. The tea was among several activities sponsored by the Poynter Fellowship, a program that brings leading media figures to campus so they can interact with Yale students and other campus community members, while learning more about the University's resources.
A Yale alumnus and Rhodes scholar who became the editor of the political weekly magazine several years short of age 30, Beinart is an avowed social liberal and fiscal conservative.
He recalled the elation he felt on election night 1992 during his senior year, when the Democrats took the White House after 12 years of Republican administrations. "I felt like I had been holding my breath my whole childhood waiting for a Democrat to take the White House," said Beinart, noting that his joy was short-lived, as he watched Clinton increasingly acquiesce to a conservative agenda.
By the eve of the election of 1996, he was deeply disappointed, he recalls. "I remember feeling that all the things that we hoped would come to pass had not only not come to pass, but the reverse had come to pass." Like many of his generation, he said, he hoped that the end of the Cold War would mean an increase in social spending, particularly for the poor. Instead, welfare and other socially progressive programs had been cut during Clinton's first term, he noted.
Now, as Clinton's second term comes to a close, Beinart said that -- to his own surprise -- the administration's last four years were "the most blessed time in American history," save for the impeachment crisis. The alumnus said he once believed that only social unrest would bring about reform, and he is confounded that that end has been achieved by different means. He noted that the tight labor market, the increase of the minimum wage and an earned income tax increase have combined to lift the poorest sector of the population to an unprecedented degree. While conceding the rich were helped even more by the soaring economy, he argues that factors such as fewer teen pregnancies and lower crime rates indicate that at every level America now enjoys greater "social peace and harmony" than ever before.
"But if I was so entirely wrong about what I thought social progress would look like, what it would take, eight years ago," he said, segueing into the current election, "it seems to me I'm probably entirely wrong about what I think the next president will bring."
He proceeded to offer his analysis of how the media and political pundits report the election news and what the possible outcomes of the coming presidential election might mean.
Immediately following a debate, Beinart claimed, none of the newspapers or television news broadcasts will announce a winner. "Either they say, 'It was a very aggressive debate, and it was a draw,' or 'It was a very passive debate, and it was a draw.'"
The pundits who have to make an immediate response might declare a winner, but always with an eye to the polls that will come out in a few days, noted the alumnus. The ones who predicted the winner incorrectly will remain silent, he contended, while the ones who were correct will speak very volubly, creating a "crescendo" effect. These pundits determine what the newspapers report, he noted.
As for who will win the upcoming presidential election, Beinart contends that will be clear from the current polls a full three weeks before Nov. 7.
Among the factors he cited as potentially crucial in the race is the turmoil in the Middle East, which might work in favor of Vice President Al Gore, since voters might prefer an experienced person in the White House. Texas Governor George W. Bush, on the other hand, does not have to contend with the threat of a third-party candidate, said Beinart, noting that Ralph Nader is taking a significant number of votes from Gore, especially in college towns of such pivotal states as Wisconsin and Michigan. "He's becoming in a bizarre kind of way 'hip,'" Beinart said of the consumer activist candidate, who is known to feature rock bands at his rallies.
Most critical of all, Beinart hypothesized, is the "hate" factor. "Base constituents are more likely to turn out because they hate someone than because they love someone," he said, noting that Bush can count on the hostility and frustration of the Christian Right for their failure to impeach Clinton to work in his favor.
Gore, on the other hand, has failed to stoke the anger of Democrats toward those on the far Right. "The Gore campaign has made no effort to tie Bush to Tom Delay, Newt Gingrich or Dick Armey," Beinart noted, "which may turn out to be a critical error."
-- By Dorie Baker
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