We, the people of the United States, have become dangerously complacent about our nation's image and influence in the world, warns School of Management Dean Jeffrey E. Garten in his book "The Big Ten: The Big Emerging Markets and How They Will Change Our Lives," recently released by Basic Books.
Furthermore, he argues, unless America takes a more active role in world affairs -- particularly in the economic realm, and particularly in the BEMs, the Big Emerging Markets of the book's title -- the nation may find itself rocked by "new, powerful global forces" for which it is totally unprepared.
Dean Garten's "Top 10" list of BEMs was originally compiled during his years as U.S. undersecretary for international trade, when he and the late Commerce Secretary Ron Brown set out to determine where America's long-term global interests lie. They concluded that "a new world was indeed arising," recalls Dean Garten. "In the future there would be a new category of country with which America would have to contend" -- i.e., the world's emerging markets. Chief among these are the "Big Ten": Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, Poland, Turkey, India, Indonesia, China and South Korea.
All of these countries have large populations and are rich with resources, explains the author. They boast the world's fastest- growing markets, and are striving to achieve economic growth and stability. These nations are also at the vortex of major political and social upheavals. "All of these 'BEMs' were big, ambitious, and gaining power in their geographical neighborhoods," he notes. "They were looking for their place in the sun, and forcing others to make room. They were increasingly aggressive and influential."
Another attribute common to most of these nations is a long record of human rights abuses -- and therein lies one of the chief challenges concerning U.S. relations with the "Big Ten," says the author. Americans "have always believed that we are a human rights model for the world ...," he writes. "We have regarded with disdain nations that do not grant maximum freedom to their citizens for free expression and free choice. ... Very often we have made human rights the leading edge of our foreign policy ..."
It would, however, be a mistake for the United States to follow past precedent by retreating to the moral high ground and refusing to establish economic ties with the BEMs because of such issues, warns Dean Garten. He recommends, instead, that the United States pursue a "vigorous commercial diplomacy" by building "much closer" relations with the BEMs and helping them to become more integrated into the world economy. "We must expand our economic interaction, not just for commercial purposes," he writes, "but also to gain influence in other arenas, such as human rights and military matters."
In fact, if the United States is to maintain its position and its influence in the world, says Dean Garten, "We must learn to think about national policy in new ways." For example, he firmly believes that the United States should "pull out all the stops" to help American companies expand their market shares in the BEMs. Some may argue that it is "contrary to free-market philosophy" for the federal government to help private firms win contracts in other countries, he notes. "But the fact is that there is no other way to open markets without significant pressure. Moreover, other governments are providing help to their firms in a major way, and have been doing so for years."
He adds: "What is at stake here is not just the interests of a few companies, but jobs, economic growth, political influence abroad -- all that our total foreign policy should be about these days."
While acknowledging that "it would be misleading to think that we can shape events absolutely to our liking," Dean Garten argues that: "In order to rise to this occasion, the United States must not be the hapless driver on the luge, taking the turns as they come, reacting rather than leading. We must resist falling back only on what we have known, and recognize the revolutionary nature of the times. We need to rid ourselves of the smug feeling that because we are such a powerful nation, and because our economy is riding high, then all the other potential problems are minor. We need a clearer definition of our purpose and our goals."
America, the beautiful?
In "The Big Ten," School of Management Dean Jeffrey E. Garten recalls a meeting with "likely future leaders" of Singapore during his term as U.S. undersecretary for international trade. He notes that, while these young men and women expressed admiration for the United States, he was "taken aback by their understanding of our shortcomings, too.
"For example, they questioned me on why we Americans look down on lawlessness in many parts of the world, when by so many measures -- homicides, larcenies, rapes -- we are among the most violent societies on earth. They recognized the tragedy of young children being forced to work, but asked how we rationalized the fact that over 20 percent of American children live in poverty. They understood why the United States pushes hard for open markets abroad or for strong protection of intellectual property rights, but referred to America's early history, when it was an emerging market and followed a policy of high protective tariffs and regularly pirated British publications.
"Listening to these feelings, which were expressed in a very sincere and low-key manner, I recalled similar encounters during my travels in Brazil, Argentina, India and China. It caused me to think that as great a nation as we are, we harbor an unrealistic view that everyone wants to be like us. ... It is not that millions of people abroad do not envy the liberties that Americans have. They no doubt do. But the entire American package is not always as attractive as we think it is."