 | Judy Woodruff |
In her analysis of the 2004 presidential election, veteran television journalist Judy Woodruff told a campus audience that public concern about national security and moral issues such as gay marriage and abortion led to George Bush's victory over U.S. Senator John Kerry.
Married women and Latinos -- two demographic groups that have traditionally voted Democratic -- aligned with the president in fairly large numbers on these issues, said Woodruff, anchor of the CNN program "Judy Woodruff's Inside Politics." She spoke before a full audience in the Law School's Levinson Auditorium on Nov. 16 as a guest of the Poynter Fellowship in Journalism at Yale.
"Experts tell me it was those two groups together who made the difference for Bush," said Woodruff, noting that Bush won 44% of the Latino vote and had the support of a majority of Americans who are married, both male and female. While post-election statistics reveal that a majority of single people voted for Kerry, there are more married people in the nation than single ones, Woodruff noted.
The record-high turnout of voters for this year's election proved to be a "pervasive triumph" for the Republican Party in general, asserted Woodruff, pointing out that the Republicans gained four seats in the Senate and won important victories in the House of Representatives and in state governments around the country.
The record-high turnout in Southern states also accounted for Bush's victory, Woodruff told her audience. She noted that some of these states have large populations of evangelical Christians, a group that this year made up 23% of the electorate -- nearly a quarter of all voters -- up from 14% in the 2000 presidential election.
"White evangelical Christian conservatives are now as important a part of the Republican constituency as African Americans have been to the Democrats," said Woodruff.
Citing a recent poll that said 87% of Americans consider religion to be important in their lives, Woodruff added, "We have in this country the most religiously observant population of any major country in the world."
Moral issues, or "the values question," Woodruff said, influenced the vote for people of all religious backgrounds, not just conservative Christians. She noted that voters favored banning gay marriage in all 11 states that posed such amendments, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, two states that Kerry won.
Woodruff, a former White House correspondent for NBC News and former Washington correspondent for "The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour," has covered eight presidential elections. She reminded her audience that Democrats haven't won a majority of the popular vote in a presidential election since 1976 and said, "If you are a Democrat, that's a reason for worry."
Describing the Democratic Party as having a "cultural disconnect" with some of the populace on moral issues, Woodruff said the only Democratic candidates who won presidential elections in recent decades, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, talked openly about religion and about their own faith. Republicans, she asserted, have been "more conversant" in this area.
"It's not easy for Democrats, looking ahead ... [at] how they'll negotiate the tricky areas to connect with more voters in a way that's authentic," Woodruff said. "They've got their work cut out."
Woodruff said that Kerry was "haunted" during his campaign by the Republican charge that he "flip-flopped" on the war in Iraq by voting for it at the outset but then opposing a bill allocating $87 billion to pay for it.
"For Karl Rove, this was the gift that never stopped giving," Woodruff said of Kerry's inability to explain his position to voters.
She said another problem for Kerry is that he did not have a "consistent narrative or compelling argument," instead offering only "position papers on the economy, health care and education."
While many voters embraced the Democratic ticket on issues of the economy and health care, Woodruff maintained, these same issues became "submerged" as the election drew closer, eclipsed by the topic of Iraq.
Nevertheless, Woodruff said there is merit to the opinion voiced by some political pundits who declared that "the American electorate wanted change but settled for the president."
Bush, the journalist noted, won only by a 3% margin, "the smallest of any incumbent president in wartime." Despite the close margin, Woodruff said there is "not a lot of soul searching going on" among the victorious Republicans.
She predicted that in his second term, Bush will both advance his own agenda and attempt to gain bipartisan support.
Significant domestic reforms, such as Bush's plans to overhaul both the tax and Social Security systems, will require Democratic cooperation, Woodruff said.
"History teaches us that those huge domestic initiatives, especially in second terms, are enacted only when you have genuine bipartisan support," the journalist told her audience.
Woodruff also speculated that Bush will fail in his attempt to get a Constitutional amendment banning gay marriage and predicted that when the time comes for him to nominate a Supreme Court justice, he will choose a conservative, rather than a "centrist."
"The mother of all battles will come on the Supreme Court nomination," said Woodruff, adding that "the word in Washington" is that Clarence Thomas will be the next chief justice.
Woodruff acknowledged to her audience that her own speculation about this issue is "just based on reading the same tea leaves that you are reading," rather than on "inside" knowledge.
Iraq, the journalist asserted, will be the biggest test of the Bush presidency, and will be the issue that determines how history regards him.
If the Bush administration can make headway against insurgents in the country and achieve legitimate elections in January or soon thereafter, Woodruff said, it will reflect positively on the president.
However, she said, "If Iraq continues to be the enormous challenge it has been, and if we are drawn further into the 'quagmire' -- to use a word some people have hesitated to use because of all its implications -- then people will make comparisons to Vietnam," she said.
During a question-and-answer session after her talk, Woodruff discussed the role of the media and her own efforts to not reveal personal political leanings.
One audience member queried her about the charge made on CNN by Comedy Central host Jon Stewart of "The Daily Show" that news or political programs on cable channels featuring anchors and guests arguing their opinions are a disservice to the American public.
Woodruff said that in the competitive environment of television programming there is "more heat" than in the past, but that she hopes there is also "more light." She cited "Nightline," "Frontline" and "NewsHour with Jim Lehrer" as shows that help to enlighten the public about issues.
"We have choices," said Woodruff. "My response [to Stewart's charge] is that as long as people are watching them, those shows are going to continue.
"We are fortunate in this country that we can have these arguments and debates," she continued. "It's a sign that our democracy is alive and well."
-- By Susan Gonzalez
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