role of leaders in Israel-Palestine clash
To Martin Indyk, former U.S. ambassador to Israel, the situation in the Middle East is grim, but not hopeless.
Appearing as the inaugural Jeffrey and Susan Stern Lecturer for Middle East and Israeli Affairs, Indyk spoke at the Slifka Center on Dec. 6 to an overflow audience.
Citing the "critical importance of the individual on history, and the role of leadership and the lack of leadership," he focused on the three principal players in the current crisis: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel, President George Bush of the United States and Palestine Liberation OrganizationChairman Yasir Arafat.
According to Indyk, what happens in the coming weeks depends on whether or not Arafat controls the terrorists in the West Bank, Gaza and Israel itself. Sharon and Bush play crucial roles, but their response will be predicated on the Palestinian chairman's actions, he contends.
"The whole world is waiting for Arafat to act," said Indyk, who is now a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institute.
Sharon will struggle to hold his coalition government together and try to avoid the political mistakes he made in Lebanon in the 1980s, when he was forced to pull Israeli troops out of the country, Indyk predicted. "As prime minister, he knows the limits of force .... He is tempted to be the general, but knows that won't stop the violence," Indyk said. Sharon is torn by competing positions, noted the former ambassador: He is simultaneously a military leader, politician and statesman -- which one dominates will be determined by what Arafat chooses to do.
Bush's position is "not so complicated, which is just as well," Indyk said: So long as Sharon maintains stability in the region, he explained, the President sees Sharon as the "good guy" and is willing to look the other way when Israel carries out targeted assassinations -- a policy the United States is now using against Osama bin Laden.
According to Indyk, Bush is angry that Arafat turned down an agreement that gave him virtually everything he had demanded -- an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital and 97% of the West Bank -- and sees Arafat as the "bad guy." Bush has signaled that if Arafat continues to harbor and support terrorists, he would be declared an enemy of the United States, said Indyk, noting that Arafat needs to uproot Hamas and the Palestine Islamic Jihad.
"Like Sharon," said the former diplomat, "President Bush prefers the option of getting Yasir Arafat to act, to the Israeli use of force while America stands by and watches. ...
"Nobody has a good understanding of what Arafat wants," contended Indyk -- whether it's the destruction of Israel, peace on his own terms, or assurance of his own political and personal survival. "My sense of him, after observing him up close for many years," he said, "is that the man is all tactics and no strategy. ... He is a trimmer, a surfer. He rides the waves. ... He is a man who cares much more about symbols than he does about the suffering of his people."
The Palestinian leader "plays the power of the weak, making himself a victim, and therefore not responsible -- it's Israel's responsibility or America's responsibility to solve the problem," said Indyk.
"Arafat is prone to miscalculation, again and again," he noted. "And that's because of his purposeful creation of a fantasy world ... If he denies something, then it's not true." For instance, Indyk recalled the time that Arafat claimed a disco bombing that killed Israeli teenagers was done by Mossad, the Israeli secret service, to put him in a difficult situation. "When I said to him, 'Mr. Chairman, you know that's not true. Your Palestinian police have arrested two people today who sent the suicide bomber.' ... [H]e was offended by this challenge" and refused to discuss it any further.
Following the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, "I believe, despite what I've said about him, that Yasir Arafat does understand he has to stop the violence. Something has changed for him," Indyk said. "An ill wind is now blowing that can do tremendous damage to the Palestinian cause." Ten years ago, Arafat sided with Iraq in the Persian Gulf War, and came to see that as a bad mistake, so he "began to take some action." But Arafat, "at the point where he had to confront the terrorists, hesitated when he should have acted," and as a result, the "terrorists went back to work."
Now Arafat "is at risk of losing it all." He has the ability to do what he has to, but he is "unlikely to rise to the moment. He is in a tight corner with only one exit. If he takes half measures, the immediate future will be very dark," Indyk concluded.
-- -- By Gila Reinstein
T H I S
Bulletin Home
W E E K ' SS T O R I E S
Yale boasts five new Rhodes, Marshall Scholars
Internationally renowned journalist examines causes of terrorists' rage
Former U.S. ambassador discusses role of leaders in Israel-Palestine clash
Sternberg to focus on students' rights as head of APA
DeVane Lectures to look at love, law in Cervantes' works
Famed architect Maya Lin discusses how her works are inspired . . .
In Focus: International Spouses & Partners at Yale
Scholar urges expansion of efforts to save giant pandas
MEDICAL SCHOOL NEWSScreening program seeks to prevent death of young athletes
Research shows doctors refer fewer women for post-heart-attack . . .
Long-term study proves value of antiepileptic drug
Scientists discover how deadly bacteria infect cells
Roundup of recent health-related discoveries
New Yale-Griffin Center Initiatives
Piano performance piece to open Yale Rep series
Yale Rep announces spring line-up of plays
Happy Holidays! Season's Greetings from the Staff . . .
Ethics of health care will be explored in ISPS talk
Yale athletes to offer free basketball clinic to neighborhood youths
A window to treasure
'Blood and Race' in the U.S. is topic of talk
Yale Books in Brief
Campus Notes
|Visiting on Campus|Calendar of Events|In the News|Bulletin Board
Yale Scoreboard|Classified Ads|Search Archives|Deadlines
Bulletin Staff|Public Affairs Home|News Releases|
E-Mail Us|Yale Home Page